Global research firm Fitch Solutions is projecting another year of strong economic expansion for Ghana in 2026, forecasting real GDP growth of 5.9%—slightly higher than the already robust 5.8% expected for 2025.
The latest outlook positions Ghana among the fastest-growing emerging markets worldwide.
Speaking at the 2026 PwC Ghana Post-Budget Forum in Accra on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, Mike Kruiniger, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, said the country’s growth prospects remain impressive, supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals and renewed investor confidence.
“We see the 2026 budget as broadly supportive of growth, and this aligns with our forecast that Ghana’s real GDP growth will rise from an already strong 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026,” he said.
Kruiniger noted that the projected expansion will be driven mainly by private consumption and a sustained rebound in fixed investment, which is recovering from the steep contraction experienced in 2023.
“In the medium term—beyond 2026—growth is expected to remain healthy at around 5%, buoyed by strong domestic demand. Crucially, Ghana’s growth projections are strong not only by historical standards but also relative to global peers,” he added.
According to Fitch Solutions, Ghana is expected to outperform several major emerging markets next year, including mainland China, Indonesia, and Kenya, highlighting what Kruiniger described as “a story of outperformance.”
However, Fitch Solutions warned that rising Islamist insurgency activity in the Sahel region remains a significant downside risk to Ghana’s 2026 outlook.
“So far, Ghana has been relatively shielded from violent spillovers compared to other coastal West African states—Benin, for example. But Islamist groups are gaining ground in the Sahel, particularly in Mali, and the risks to Ghana are rising.”
The firm cautioned that if militant activity extends southward, Ghana may be compelled to increase its defence spending, which is currently among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. Such adjustments could strain public finances and undermine macroeconomic stability.
“Our base case is that Ghana will remain largely insulated from major attacks. But if militants were to cross into northern Ghana, the government would likely need to ramp up military spending,” he said.
By: Ekow Annan/newsalertgh.com
